Cantor Fitzgerald came away “very encouraged” from Rivian‘s Autonomy and AI Day event held in Palo Alto, the firm said in a new research note sent out to clients on Friday.
Analysts at Cantor participated in a demo ride on public roads which “required no human intervention,” and held conversations with the company’s founder and CEO RJ Scaringe and CFO Claire McDonough, among other executives.
Andres Sheppard maintained a Neutral rating and $15 price target on the stock but outlined a bullish case for Rivian‘s autonomy strategy.
Sheppard said it could materially boost customer demand, improve unit economics, mitigate the impact of the EV tax credit removal, and “potentially take some of Tesla’s market share in North America.”
“We came away very encouraged from Rivian‘s AI and Autonomy Day,” the analyst wrote.
“Overall we see Rivian‘s AI and customer focus autonomous approach as a way for Rivian to: materially boost customer demand, improve the unit economics of the business, mitigate some of the impact of the EV tax credit removal, and potentially take some of Tesla’s EV market share in North America.”
The Cantor team conducted a demo ride of Rivian‘s hands-off autonomous technology on public roads near the company’s Palo Alto offices. A safety driver was present in the driver’s seat, but the ride required no human intervention, according to the note.
Wall Street Reacts
The stock hit earlier this Friday a new high since January 2024 (23 months) at $19.60.
BNP Paribas senior analyst James Picariello said the event exceeded expectations and positioned Rivian as a serious challenger to Tesla‘s dominance.
“The event exceeded our expectations and cements our view for Rivian to become the number 2 North America EV player, even leapfrogging Tesla right now in certain AI-integration areas,” Picariello said.
Needham was even more bullish, raising its price target on Rivian by 64% to $23 while maintaining a Buy rating.
Analyst Chris Pierce cited increased confidence in Rivian‘s positioning as software and AI-defined vehicles become industry requirements, with the company’s vertical integration underpinning “a durable competitive advantage.”
Phased Autonomy Rollout Through 2026
Rivian‘s Autonomy+ will be rolled out in phases starting with hands-free autonomy later this month, followed by eyes-off capabilities toward the end of 2026, and ultimately culminating in full Level 4 point-to-point autonomy.
The fully autonomous system will be equipped with 11 cameras, 5 radars, and 1 LiDAR, and will be available on more than 3.5 million miles of roads in North America, capable of operating on highways and on roads with defined painted lines, according to management.
Autonomy+ Priced at ‘Significant Discount’ to Tesla
Prior to the implementation of LiDAR into Rivian’s vehicles, which Cantor expects in the third quarter of 2026 following the R2 launch, Rivian will launch its Autonomy+ subscription for a one-time fee of $2,500 or $49.99 per month.
“At this price point, which represents a significant discount to Tesla’s FSD priced at ~$8,000 (or $99/month), we expect Rivian‘s customer demand to grow materially starting in 2026 as a result of these increased autonomy features for consumers,” Sheppard wrote.
Neutral Rating Maintained Amid Near-Term Caution
Despite the positive takeaways, Cantor maintained its Neutral rating, citing expectations for a weaker fourth quarter.
However, Sheppard identified several material near-term catalysts in 2026 that could present an attractive entry point for investors.
“We continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a differentiated product offering (R1, EDVs, & R2), a strong commercial partnership with Amazon, and a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen,” Sheppard wrote.
“We are encouraged by the company’s autonomy strategy and features, and while we remain Neutral-rated in the near-term (we expect a weaker Q4), we see several material near-term catalysts in 2026 which could present an attractive entry point for investors,” the analyst added.
