Rivian‘s first-quarter deliveries beat estimates while production missed Cantor Fitzgerald’s consensus, the firm said in a research note sent to clients on Thursday.
The Irvine-headquartered EV maker delivered 10,365 vehicles in the quarter, above Cantor’s estimate of 9,856 and the Visible Alpha consensus of 9,678.
Both vehicles delivered and produced include the commercial vans with Rivian not disclosing separate figures for its passenger vehicles.
The figure marked a 20% increase from the 8,640 units delivered in the first quarter of 2025, when the company was navigating factory retooling ahead of the R2 launch.
Production came in at 10,236 vehicles — above the Visible Alpha consensus of 9,852 but below Cantor’s own estimate of 11,200.
It was also below the 14,611 units produced a year ago, when the Normal, Illinois plant was running at a higher rate before parts of the facility were idled to install the R2 manufacturing line.
All vehicles were produced at the company’s sole operational factory in Normal.
The results were in line with the company’s outlook, Rivian said on Thursday.
Guidance Held
Rivian reaffirmed its full-year delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, which includes its commercial electric delivery van.
The range is broadly in line with the Visible Alpha consensus of approximately 62,664.
The company also reiterated its 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA of negative $2.1 billion to negative $1.8 billion.
With 10,365 vehicles delivered in the first quarter, the reaffirmed guidance means Rivian needs to deliver between 51,635 and 56,635 vehicles over the remaining nine months — an average of roughly 17,200 to 18,900 per quarter, or approximately 1.7 to 1.8 times the first-quarter rate.
Management has indicated that R1 and commercial van volumes are expected to remain roughly flat compared to 2025, leaving the R2 responsible for approximately 20,000 to 25,000 units from a standing start.
Cantor said that the Neutral rating and $18 price target are unchanged, pending a full model update.
As of press time, Rivian shares were edging lower (-0.6%) at $14.85.
R2 on the Doorstep
The quarterly results arrive as Rivian prepares to begin production of the R2, a mid-size SUV priced from $45,000 that represents its first entry into the mass market.
Full trims and pricing were revealed on March 12 at the SXSW Festival, where Rivian served as headline sponsor for the second consecutive year.
The model will debut with a Performance Dual Motor variant at $57,990 — sitting almost exactly at the price of the Tesla Model Y Performance at $57,490 — before expanding to a Premium trim at $53,990 in late 2026.
The entry-level Standard variant is not expected until late 2027.
Rivian‘s head of sales said last month that the R2 response had “exceeded” management expectations.
Production is set to begin over the coming weeks at the Normal plant, starting on a single shift before adding a second later in the year and a third in 2027.
Deliveries to employees are planned this month, with external customer handovers starting in late spring. The first units will go to existing R1 owners.
Rivian rolled out Manufacturing Validation Build vehicles in January, which it described as “an important phase in development where we validate and perfect the quality of vehicles coming off the line.”
Under Watch
The firm identified four catalysts over the coming quarters including initial R2 customer deliveries in the second quarter and the deployment of Rivian’s custom RAP1 autonomy chip in the second half.
Additionally, Sheppard mentioned the launch of Autonomy+ eyes-off highway driving later this year, and the start of construction at Rivian‘s second factory in Georgia.
The company will report its full first-quarter financial results on April 30 after the market close.
Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough said last month at the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference that software and services revenue is expected to grow approximately 60% in 2026, implying roughly $2.5 billion — driven by the Volkswagen joint venture and paid autonomy subscriptions.
Rivian ended 2025 with approximately $6.1 billion in cash and expects to receive $2 billion from Volkswagen this year, including the recently secured $1 billion contingent on the successful completion of winter testing.
