Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Neutral rating on Rivian on Tuesday, saying the EV maker is “heading in the right direction” but that the firm is awaiting a better entry point following the stock’s sharp rally last week.
Rivian shares were trading 1.2% lower at $17.51 in Tuesday’s pre-market session after closing at $17.72 on Friday.
“In our opinion, Rivian is accelerating its path to profitability, though we remain neutral as we await a better entry point,” analyst Andres Sheppard wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
The stock has surged over 26% on Friday following better than expected fourth quarter results, though it remains down 10% year-to-date.
R2 as ‘Material Catalyst’
Cantor views the EV maker’s upcoming R2 mid-size SUV as a key growth driver.
“We view Rivian‘s R2 as a material catalyst, and one that should result in higher customer demand, driven by the more competitive price point,” Sheppard wrote.
Management reaffirmed that initial R2 deliveries remain on track for the second quarter.
As reported by EV earlier this month, a sales representative mentioned “mid-April” as Rivian‘s target for the first customer deliveries.
The vehicle has an initial annual production capacity of 155,000 units and a starting price of $45,000 for the base trim, though Cantor recalled that Rivian will launch first with a higher-trim version.
Full pricing and specifications will be revealed on March 12.
For 2026, management is targeting around 10,000 deliveries in each of the first two quarters, followed by a material step-up in the second half as R2 production ramps.
Mirroring the leadership’s guidance in the earnings conference call, Cantor expects R1 and commercial EDV volumes to remain relatively flat year-over-year, with R2 accounting for the incremental growth.
Autonomy to Boost Demand
Cantor sees Rivian‘s autonomous driving strategy as a way to boost demand, improve unit economics, offset the potential removal of EV tax credits, and capture market share from competitors in North America.
Rivian‘s autonomy capabilities will roll out in phases after the hands-free driving launched in December.
Eyes-off capability is expected by late 2026, and full Level 4 point-to-point autonomy will follow, Cantor noted. The system will be equipped with 11 cameras, 5 radars, and 1 LiDAR unit.
The company plans to offer its Autonomy+ subscription for a one-time fee of $2,500 or $49.99 per month — significantly below Tesla‘s Full Self-Driving at $99 per month.
Q4 Results
Rivian reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.29 billion, slightly above consensus of $1.28 billion.
The company posted a gross profit of $120 million with a 9% margin — significantly beating the 2% expected by analysts.
Adjusted loss per share came in at 54 cents, beating estimates of 66 cents. For full-year 2025, Rivian narrowed its net loss to $3.65 billion from $4.75 billion in 2024.
Management initiated 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, in line with consensus of approximately 64,000.
Price Target Raised
Cantor raised its price target to $18 from $15 on February 12, citing higher delivery estimates and improving margins.
“We increase our FY26 vehicle deliveries to 64,330 from prior 58,800 to reflect company guidance, resulting in an increase to FY26 revenue of $6.5 billion from prior $6.2 billion,” Sheppard wrote.
“We also increase our FY26 gross margins to 8% from prior 5%,” the analyst added.
The firm said Rivian benefits from its commercial partnership with Amazon, a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, and a differentiated product offering spanning R1, EV charging, commercial delivery vans, and the upcoming R2.
