Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reiterated his Buy rating and $21 price target on Rivian on Friday, hours after the EV maker released its Q4 2025 production and delivery figures.
Gianarikas noted that Rivian‘s path since going public in 2021 has “been far from smooth,” though he sees a potential shift ahead with the R2 launch which is planned for the next few months.
Earlier on Friday, Rivian said that it delivered 9,745 electric vehicles in Q4 while producing 10,974 units, meeting its revised annual guidance.
For the full year, the company delivered 42,247 vehicles — within its lowered guidance range of 41,500 to 43,500 but down 18% from 51,579 units in 2024.
“Rivian‘s 4Q25 deliveries essentially met expectations; but our enthusiasm for 2026 is undiminished,” Gianarikas wrote in a research note. “The company’s journey so far has been far from smooth.”
Gianarikas said he has “long admired Rivian‘s technology, vertically integrated strategy, leadership team, and its vehicles,” but acknowledged that “since the IPO, however, Rivian‘s earnings revisions have trended mostly downward.”
“The world has changed significantly since then, and we view this as largely a reflection of challenging market conditions,” the analyst added.
‘Potential Shift Afoot’
Despite the cautious assessment, Gianarikas sees a turning point approaching.
“But there’s a potential shift afoot,” he wrote. “We believe the upcoming R2 launch could mark the beginning of a positive trend-break in earnings revisions — and the stock.”
The analyst noted that “after a long wait and plenty of buzz, Rivian is finally rolling out its more budget-friendly whip, the R2, in 1H26.”
R2 Vision
Canaccord views the R2 as central to Rivian‘s future.
The mid-size SUV will have a starting price of $45,000. However, the EV maker is expected to begin production with a higher end variant, with entry level ones following at a later stage.
Gianarikas described it as “the first vehicle to truly capture Rivian‘s long-term vision, in our view — a more accessible, adventure-oriented EV that extends the brand’s appeal beyond its existing premium lineup.”
The vehicle “reflects Rivian‘s mission to deliver its distinctive EV experience to a broader audience, while also introducing advanced technologies such as zonal architecture and ECU consolidation,” he wrote.
Gianarikas highlighted the SUV’s competitive positioning, noting that “the Rivian R2, expected to start around $45k, appears well positioned to tap into a crucial segment of the U.S. auto market, where the average new-vehicle transaction price surpassed $50k for the first time in September.”
“With pricing slightly below that average, the R2 sits squarely in the mass-market sweet spot, allowing it to appeal to a wider range of mainstream buyers rather than only premium EV enthusiasts,” the analyst added.
Gianarikas drew comparisons to Tesla Inc.’s growth trajectory, noting that the Austin-based EV maker “followed a comparable path when its sales surged with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y — vehicles also priced to reach a broader consumer base.”
“We see a liquid pool comprising several hundred thousand vehicles for Rivian to tap in the US alone,” he wrote. “And then will come Europe.”
2026 Outlook
The analyst described Rivian’s trajectory next year as “poised to be truly inflectional, with the R2 platform serving as the core growth catalyst and the accelerated deployment of advanced autonomous-driving features acting as a powerful force multiplier.”
Gianarikas, who attended Rivian’s recent Autonomy & AI Day, said “it was an event that seemed to bridge the gap between Rivian as it is and Rivian as it will be — where the Rivian of today met the Rivian of tomorrow.”
Mass-Market Alternative to Tesla
Canaccord sees Rivian as a potential challenger to Tesla’s dominance in the US EV market.
“The US lacks any true EV alternative to Tesla; there’s a massive chasm between MuskCo. and second place, in our view,” Gianarikas wrote. “Rivian could provide a viable mass market #2.”
The analyst said Rivian has a window of opportunity as competitors pull back from electrification.
“As other OEMs retreat from EV commitments — either by design or compelled by demand issues — we believe Rivian has a unique, timely opportunity to push forward, pull ahead of the non-Tesla pack, and establish itself as the next American auto icon,” he wrote.
Gianarikas added that “Rivian‘s commitment to vertical integration affords it a legitimate opportunity to stand out and survive in a Western EV market dominated by derivative, underwhelming vehicles that feel stuck together with Scotch tape, lacking cohesive design and engineering.”
Industry Transition
Despite broader skepticism around EV adoption with the expired $7,500 EV Tax Credit, Gianarikas remains confident in the long-term shift to electric vehicles.
“Despite the prevailing narrative around the EV malaise, we see the auto industry’s journey to electrification as highly likely, similar to the smartphone/streaming industry transitions of years past,” the analyst wrote.
“These industry transitions create a chasm in customer expectations and prevailing business models that invite insurgents to usurp the market-leading positions of industry incumbents,” he added.
