Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Bernstein released a research note on Wednesday assessing U.S. auto sector performance, noting a slowdown in February for most automakers except General Motors.
Analyst Daniel Roeska said GM “appears to have the best handle on volumes, pricing, and inventory management of the Detroit Three.”
“However, the changing U.S. policy environment threatens to significantly impact the auto market in 2025,” Roeska wrote.
The note follows former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a one-month delay in the implementation of 25% tariffs on vehicle imports from Canada and Mexico for automakers that comply with USMCA trade rules. Bernstein expects “continued policy uncertainty to turn investors away from the sector and put a pause on crucial decisions and investments in the U.S. automotive industry.”
On Rivian, Roeska said demand headwinds have returned as the EV maker’s retail sales fell 9% year-on-year in February.
“Rivian’s Demand headwinds back in focus,” he wrote. “Rivian extends retail sales losses coming in -9% yoy in February. Despite management pointing to LA fires as source of demand weakness, the elevated incentive spend points to weak momentum.”
The company sold 4,100 electric vehicles in the U.S. last month, according to estimates from Motor Intelligence. While February figures marked a 34% increase from January, they were 21% lower than a year ago.
Rivian expects to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles this year, below most Wall Street estimates.
To boost demand, Rivian on Wednesday introduced a limited-time lease incentive, offering up to $13,500 in savings for customers taking delivery before the end of March.
The deal includes a $6,000 All-Electric Upgrade Offer for Max Pack models and a $7,500 EV Lease Credit. Additionally, for orders placed before March 15, Rivian is offering a $599/month lease on the R1S or R1T Dual Standard.
In February, Lucid Motors reached a new sales record in the United States with 805 vehicles while Tesla recorded 43,650 units.
As of now, Rivian shares are down 1.50%, trading at $10.95.
The company has recently reported its first-ever quarterly gross profit of $170 million in Q4 2024. Rivian achieved the result after strategically delayed the sale of $260 million regulatory credits until the final quarter to ensure it achieved profitability for the first time. However, the company is not expected to report a profit for the first quarter of 2025.
