Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating on Rivian‘s stock this Wednesday, as it released its estimates ahead of the company’s upcoming quarterly earnings report.
Rivian will disclose its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on Thursday, at 5 p.m. Eastern Time.
The company’s stock has come under pressure in the past few weeks amid shareholder anticipation for updates on the upcoming R2 SUV, scheduled to debut in about a month.
Since its 2025 high of $22.69 — reached on December 22 — Rivian shares declined by 40%, reaching a new three-month low at $13.58 on February 5.
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg, however, remains bullish on the company, with a $18 price target reiterated on Wednesday.
The target implies an upside potential of 22.4%, based on Tuesday’s closing price.
As os press time, Rivian‘s stock was trading 2.3% lower at $14.62.
Benchmark Estimates
In a new research note — first obtained by PriceTarget — Legg said Benchmark expects Rivian‘s fourth quarter revenue to reach $1.27 billion, in line with the FactSet consensus of $1.26 billion.
Considering revenue from the prior quarters, the figures represent a 27% decline year over year, as deliveries fell to 9,745 units in the fourth quarter.
Rivian exceeded Wall Street’s revenue forecasts by 4.9% in the third quarter, reporting $1.56 billion — a 78.3% increase compared to the same period a year earlier.
After the EV maker posted a third-quarter loss of $0.65 per share, Wall Street analysts expect the fourth-quarter loss to widen to $0.71 per share.
However, Benchmark projects a slightly smaller loss of $0.61 per share, four cents better than the consensus.
Rivian disclosed a $200 million gross profit between January and March, returning to a loss in the following quarter and posting $24 million profits in the third quarter.
In the first quarter, after achieving a positive profit, Rivian received a $1 billion investment from the Volkswagen Group as part of the automaker’s planned capital commitment to the EV company.
The German automaker has committed in late 2024 to invest up to $5.8 billion in the Irvine-based EV maker, as part of their joint venture focused on co-developing software.
Future tranches of Volkswagen‘s investment will be released only when Rivian meets specific milestones — including testing targets and the start of production of the software-defined vehicles.
2026 Outlook
Benchmark’s analyst said in the note that Rivian‘s liquidity “remains solid,” with $7 billion in cash and over $10 billion in incremental capital.
These numbers are “supported” by Volkswagen‘s funding and by the US Department of Energy (DOE) loan secured by Rivian last year.
Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough said last October that the company would only tap the DOE loan in 2028, as it completes construction of its second plant in Georgia and prepares for production there.
The analyst expects Rivian‘s “commitment to a modest full-year gross profit,” with guidance for adjusted losses of $1.7–1.9 billion this year, while guiding capital expenditures to $1.6–1.7 billion.
Rivian reported a loss of over $2.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. In 2024, the total net loss reached $4.7 billion.
Investors are anticipating further updates on Rivian‘s liquidity, as the company — which has incurred over $23 billion in cumulative losses in recent years — approaches the launch of its more affordable R2 SUV.
In recent months, the company’s management has consistently emphasized that it has reduced production costs for the R2 by 50% compared with its R1 models.
Demand for the SUV, through which Rivian will enter a lower-priced segment — and expand to Europe next year — is key for the company’s profitability goals, as founder and Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe reiterated last week.
“R2 is really instrumental for driving the business to positive cash flow and overall profitability,” RJ Scaringe stated, speaking with CNBC.
Earlier on Wednesday, Benchmark also reiterated its Buy rating on Tesla, with a $475 price target on the stock, as the company enters 2026 with a strategic transition in its business.
