Baird said on Wednesday it expects the electric vehicle maker Rivian to miss Wall Street estimates for second-quarter vehicle deliveries, as it prepares to make a one-month factory retooling ahead of the R2 launch next year.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated a Neutral rating and $14 price target on Rivian, suggesting a modest upside of 1.3% from Tuesday’s closing price of $13.81.
“We model deliveries of 9.9K versus the consensus estimate of 10.6K and expect production to exceed deliveries as RIVN prepares for roughly one month of factory downtime in the second half,” Kallo wrote in a client note.
The company has just sharply reduced lease prices for its flagship R1T electric pickup and R1S SUV in the United States as Rivian prepares to launch updated 2026 model year versions later this year.
Motor Intelligence data showed Rivian registered 2,970 vehicles in April and 3,688 in May in the United States. That brings its second quarter to-date total to 6,658 units, down from 7,559 during the same period last year.
The upcoming plant shutdown is intended to prepare manufacturing lines for the R2, Rivian’s next-generation SUV, which remains on track for a first-half 2026 launch — according to the Baird analyst.
“An Autonomy Day for investors in 2H is a potential catalyst and will likely shed additional details on the company’s development ambitions,” Kallo said, adding that he expects event details to be announced “on or before” the Q2 earnings report.
The Irvine-based EV maker produced 14,611 vehicles and delivered 8,640 in the first quarter of the year.
The company in May lowered its full-year delivery guidance to between 40,000 and 46,000 vehicles, down from a previous range of 46,000 to 51,000 units.
Rivian’s chief software officer, Wassym Bensaid, recently said the upcoming R2 platform will “underpin … all future EV products at VW,” referring to the company’s partnership with Volkswagen announced last year.
The revamped 2026 R1S will start at $76,990 for the Dual-Motor Standard configuration, while the updated 2026 R1T pickup will begin at $70,990 — representing price increases of up to $1,090.
As of the time of writing, Rivian shares are trading flat at $13.81.
