Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao said in a research note on Monday that Nio’s newly unveiled Onvo L90 SUV has secured between 30,000 and 35,000 pre-orders since its pre-sale launch last week.
The note attributed the 11% surge in Hong Kong-listed shares of Nio on Monday to the “solid preorder intake” for Onvo’s second model.
The SUV was pre-launched in Hefei, China, last Thursday night local time, securing between 30,000 and 35,000 pre-sale orders within just four days.
Hsiao drew comparisons with the L60, Onvo’s debut vehicle launched last year, noting that “unsatisfactory execution at its launch” had led to “way lower” expectations for the follow-up model.
“While it remains below Onvo L60’s 60k+ pre-sale orders back in 3Q24, the market’s volume expectations for L90 appear way lower, especially given L90’s higher price tag and L60’s unsatisfactory execution at its launch,” Hsiao wrote.
In a separate note published last week, Morgan Stanley had reiterated its $5.90 price target on Nio’s U.S.-listed shares, implying an upside potential of approximately 70% based on the prior closing price.
“As mentioned in our note last week, we see Onvo L90 as a highly competitive model in the sub-Rmb300k segment given its superior interior space and specs—especially if the official price comes out lower than its pre-sale price,” the analyst wrote.
Hsiao added that deliveries exceeding 5,000 units per month would be “a low bar to beat,” while stressing that execution will be key: “Not yet a blue sky scenario… quality execution remains imperative.”
The analyst also noted that the sharp rise in Nio’s share price appeared to be “largely driven by short-covering/squeezing trades,” given the stock’s prior short interest.
“To turn incrementally constructive, investors will likely continue to monitor store traffic and pre-sale order intake over the next few weeks before official deliveries begin in August,” Hsiao wrote.
“The bull case from here would also take improving L60 sales and resurgence in sales of Nio-branded vehicles with more aggressive promotions.”
Last week, the analyst estimated that “the official pricing will likely come in below market expectations of Rmb270,000–280,000 [$37,800–$39,020].”
The L90, a large family SUV, will be offered in six- and seven-seat versions. A five-seat variant — planned to be named the L80 — is scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Last week, the company raised the registered capital of two of its core Chinese subsidiaries by a combined $2.78 billion, according to a new corporate filing on data platform Qichacha.
As of the time of writing, Nio’s US-listed shares are trading 5.6% higher at $4.12.
