Nio‘s US-listed shares fell to a five-month low on Thursday, extending a decline that began in October despite the Chinese electric vehicle maker delivering a record month in December and rolling out its one millionth vehicle this week.
The stock price dropped to $4.67 — the lowest level since mid-August — in early trading, a few hours after the company announced its official expansion to Singapore while confirming the Thailand arrival for later this quarter.
It has fallen more than 41% from its 2025 high of $8.02 reached in early October, days after the company secured more than 100,000 firm orders for the new generation ES8.
US-listed shares of the Shanghai-headquartered group have erased part of the gains from a third-quarter rally that saw shares more than double between July and September.
The decline comes less than a week after the Nio Group reported its strongest sales month ever, with 48,135 vehicles delivered globally in December.
However, the Q4 2025 non-GAAP profitability target has not yet been confirmed with the audit currently in progress.
The company is expected to report its financial results in early March.
Fourth-quarter deliveries of the Nio Group totaled 124,807 units, meeting the company’s lowered guidance of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles but falling well short of the 150,000 units management had projected in early September.
The guidance provided in the first days of September implied already a reduction from the initial target for 2025 of delivering more than 440,000 units.
Missed Targets
Full-year deliveries for 2025 came in at 326,028 vehicles, representing 73% of the 442,000-unit target the company set at the beginning of the year.
While the figure marked a 47% increase from 2024, the yearly figures missed the initial goal.
In June, Chief Executive Officer William Li said the core Nio brand and its mass-market Onvo sub-brand would each target about 25,000 deliveries per month in the fourth quarter.
By the November earnings call, the company had cut its Q4 outlook to between 120,000 and 125,000 units.
For 2026, Li said this week the company expects to record a 40-50% sales growth, hinting at between 456,000 and 489,000 EVs delivered globally.
Beyond vehicle deliveries, Nio also missed its battery swap network expansion target.
The company had planned to open 2,000 new stations in 2025 alone but closed the year with approximately 700 built.
As reported by EV, Li acknowledged the target would not be met, citing the company’s focus on developing next-generation stations set to be unveiled in the first months of 2026.
The slower deployment pace contributed to Nio‘s primary goal for 2025: achieving non-GAAP profitability in the fourth quarter.
Battery swap stations represent a significant portion of the company’s research and development investments, and the reduced rollout helped control costs.
Core Brand Decline
While the group’s overall deliveries grew, the core Nio brand recorded its first annual sales decline since the company began delivering vehicles in 2018.
The Nio brand delivered 178,806 vehicles globally in 2025, down 11.1% from 201,209 units in 2024, according to figures released by the company on the first day of the year.
Weakening demand for its sedan lineup and entry-level SUVs offset record performance from the three-row ES8 SUV.
The decline underscores the company’s growing reliance on its newer sub-brands.
Onvo, which began deliveries in September 2024, contributed 107,808 units to the group’s 2025 total, while Firefly added 39,414 units following its debut last year.
European Strategy Shift
Due to weaker-than-expected demand outside China in recent years, Nio has begun adjusting its international business model.
Starting with Israel, where the company expanded in late 2024, Nio began entering new markets through dealer partnerships instead of building its own sales teams and retail networks — a departure from its approach in Norway in 2021 and four additional European markets in 2022.
In those five markets — Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark — Nio has not closed its stores and maintains a direct sales model, with the exception of Denmark.
The Scandinavian country had no Nio showroom, making the transition to the dealer model easier.
2026 Model Offensive
To address the demand imbalance between SUVs and sedans, Nio plans to launch three new large SUVs this year — two under the main Nio brand and one under Onvo.
The flagship ES9 will mirror the advanced technology featured in the ET9 sedan unveiled in December 2024, representing the highest level of technology Nio has put into a vehicle.
The first images of the SUV were released by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology earlier on Thursday.
The company will also introduce a significant refresh of the five-seat ES7 SUV.
Under Onvo, the group will launch the L80, a five-seat version of the three-row L90 that debuted last year.
Profitability Outlook
The stock weakness persists despite Li reaffirming earlier this week his confidence that Nio will achieve its first-ever quarterly profit in the fourth quarter.
Speaking at a media briefing to mark the rollout of Nio’s one millionth electric vehicle at the company’s Xinqiao plant in Hefei, Li acknowledged the challenging environment while expressing optimism.
“Nio is still alive, and as long as we are alive, there are opportunities,” Li said.
The company posted a loss of about 2.7 billion yuan in the third quarter. Li said more high-margin models delivered in the fourth quarter should improve results, though final figures remain subject to audit.
Whether Nio can achieve its non-GAAP profitability target remains unclear, with investors now awaiting the company’s fourth-quarter results expected in early March.
At the second-quarter earnings call last September, Li said achieving breakeven required delivering 150,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter with vehicle gross margin “around 16% to 17%” for the entire group, while controlling R&D investments and selling, general, and administrative expenses.
The group ultimately delivered 124,807 units in the fourth quarter, about 25,200 vehicles below the threshold Li outlined in September.
The millionth-vehicle milestone makes Nio the fourth Chinese new energy vehicle company to reach that threshold, following Li Auto, XPeng, and Leapmotor.
Institutional Interest
While the stock has declined sharply in recent months, institutional ownership increased significantly during the third-quarter rally.
According to Nasdaq data, 471 institutional investors collectively held around 317.5 million shares as of Thursday, up from just under 200 million shares at the end of the second quarter — a 58% increase.
Institutions will begin reporting their fourth-quarter portfolio updates in February, which will reveal whether investors added to positions during the recent decline or reduced exposure.
Institutional ownership remains well below its early 2022 peak of nearly 600 million shares.
Over the past five years, Nio shares have plunged 92% from levels above $60 reached during the EV boom of 2021.
