Nio has shortened the estimated delivery time for its ES8 sport utility vehicle (SUV) to 8-9 weeks, as production appears to be catching up with — and potentially outpacing — new orders.
The latest reduction marks the third cut since mid-January, when customers faced a wait of 15-16 weeks.
At launch in late September, the wait time stood at 24-26 weeks — equivalent to half a year, according to the company’s configurator page.
The data reveals a clear pattern: as Nio ramped deliveries from roughly 280 units per day in September to over 800 per day in December, the order backlog shrank rapidly.
However, the wait time continued falling even as January deliveries dropped 21% from December to 17,646 units.
This suggests one of two scenarios: either Nio‘s production capacity now exceeds incoming order flow, or the initial surge of 100,000-plus orders placed at launch has been largely fulfilled.
Backlog Analysis
When the ES8 launched in late September with a 24-26 week wait time and over 100,000 firm orders, simple math implied Nio needed to deliver approximately 4,000 units per week to clear the backlog in six months.
The company has far exceeded that pace. Cumulative deliveries from September through January 31 totaled approximately 60,099 units.
At this rate, the initial 100,000 orders would be fulfilled by late February or early March — aligning with the current 8-9 week delivery estimate for new orders.
Demand Questions
The shrinking wait time raises questions about whether ES8 demand is stabilizing after the initial launch frenzy.
The pattern would mirror what happened with other models — such as the flagship sedan ET9, which started being delivered in the final days of March 2025.
After registering 810 units in its first full month of deliveries, the sedan has not represented more than 200 units in any of the past six months — between July 2025 and December 2025.
The 22,258 deliveries in December made the ES8 China’s best-selling SUV in the 400,000 yuan segment by single-month volume.
But January’s 17,646 units — while still strong — represented a 21% sequential decline.
Some slowdown was expected due to typical seasonality and the approaching Lunar New Year holiday. However, the continued compression of delivery times suggests production is no longer constrained by demand.
Daily deliveries averaged approximately 735 units in January, down from 824 in December but still well above the early ramp period.
If new orders have slowed to below this level, wait times could continue falling — or Nio may need to adjust production.
Competitive Pressure
The timing is notable as competition in China’s premium three-row SUV segment intensifies.
Zeekr launched its 9X SUV days after the ES8 debuted, and the Geely-backed brand is preparing to introduce a smaller 8X variant.
XPeng revealed the first images of its GX premium six-seat SUV earlier this month, though pricing remains undisclosed.
The model will be available in both fully electric and extended range powertrains.
ES9 Cannibalization Risk
Nio‘s own lineup may also be drawing potential ES8 buyers away.
The company is tentatively setting April 10 as the launch date for the ES9, a larger, pricier, and more advanced SUV that will become Nio‘s new flagship after more than seven years.
First images and specifications appeared in China’s MIIT catalogue last month, showing the ES9 shares the same 102 kWh battery pack as the ES8 but offers a larger footprint and more advanced features.
Some ES8 reservation holders may be delaying orders — or canceling them — in favor of upgrading to the ES9, which could explain part of the wait time compression.
Production Capacity
Nio‘s third factory, where the ES8 is produced, manufactured 43,668 units of the model in 2025, exceeding the company’s target by nearly 3,700 vehicles.
The EV maker has demonstrated the capacity of delivering over 800 units per day at peak, suggesting Nio could deliver approximately 20,000-25,000 ES8s monthly if demand supports it.
Whether the company can sustain December’s record pace — or whether January’s decline signals a new baseline — will become clearer in coming months.
Pricing
The third-generation ES8, launched September 20 at Nio’s annual event in Hangzhou, is priced more than 100,000 yuan below its predecessor.
The six-seat Executive Signature Edition starts at 446,800 yuan ($64,100), while the Executive Luxury Edition begins at 406,800 yuan ($58,400).
A seven-seat Executive Luxury Edition is available.
