Mizuho Securities lowered on Tuesday its price target on Nio to $3.50 from $4.00 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating on the EV stock.
Nio’s US-listed shares fell more than 5% immediately after the company reported its first quarter earnings results earlier this Tuesday.
However, at the earnings conference call with the management, the founder and CEO William Li revealed that the Shanghai-based group aims to deliver over 50,000 units per month in the final quarter of the year.
The stock erased earlier losses and is trading nearly 2% higher at $3.59 as of the time of writing.
Mizuho’s analyst Vijay Rakesh cited rising competitive pressures in China and execution risks despite the higher-than-expected guidance for vehicle deliveries.
In a new note sent to clients, the analyst wrote that Nio’s revenue in the first three months of the year missed consensus by 300 million yuan, equivalent to $41.6 million.
“Nio reported MarQ rev/EPS of RMB 12.0B/RMB (3.29) (cons. RMB 12.3B/RMB (2.54)) and guided JulQ to RMB 19.8B (cons. RMB 19.6B) […],” Rakesh wrote before commenting on the sales guidance.
Consensus for vehicle deliveries in the second quarter was at 69,900 units. However, Nio said it expects to deliver between 72,000 and 75,000 EVs (mid-point at 73,500) between April and June.
Given it delivered 23,900 in April and 23,231 in May, the Shanghai-based group estimates deliveries to range between 24,869 and 27,869 EVs in June.
“[Nio guided] deliveries to 73.5k units (cons. of 69.9k), up ~75% q/q,” Rakesh wrote.
Mizuho analyst said Nio’s second-quarter delivery guidance reflected stronger momentum, driven by refreshed 2025 model year vehicles (ES6, EC6, ET5 and ET5 Touring) and the continued ramp-up of its sub-brands, Onvo and Firefly.
However, Rakesh cautioned that the company’s target of reaching 50,000 monthly deliveries by the end of 2025 could prove “potentially challenging” in the face of intensifying competition in China.
The analyst noted that the company would need to more than double its current monthly run-rate within six months to achieve the target.
On profitability, Rakesh noted that gross margins are expected to improve as new models roll out, aligning with management’s goal to achieve vehicle margins of 15% in 2025 and 25% longer term.
As a last key highlight, Mizuho analyst mentioned the fact that Nio reiterated plans to reach breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Mizuho values Nio at 0.6x its 2026E price-to-sales ratio, a slight discount to the Chinese EV sector average of 0.8x, citing the ongoing market share battle in China.
Separately, Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, with analyst Tim Hsiao keeping a $5.90 price target — implying an upside of over 70%.
Hsiao said investor focus remains on Nio’s ability to scale volumes and improve cash flow.
