Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao lowered the firm’s price target on Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares from HK$38.00 to HK$34.00 in a research note released on Monday, maintaining a Neutral rating.
Over the weekend, Nio‘s founder and chief executive William Li said the group’s main brand will launch four refreshed models in the second quarter of the year.
Nio’s shares closed 0.3% higher at HK$34.05 on Monday, leaving Macquarie’s new price target in line with the stock’s current level.
Last October, after Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares surged to HK$60.70, Macquarie raised its price target from HK$52 to HK$65. However, a few weeks later, the firm downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform and cut the target by 41% to HK$38.
At the time, it also lowered its price target for Nio’s U.S.-listed shares to $4.80 from $6.60.
Hsiao said in November the firm was “concerned about comments that 50-60% of Onvo orders were affected by the expiration of local purchase subsidies by end-2024.”
Nio’s U.S. listed shares are trading 2.4% higher on Monday’s pre-market trading session at $4.34. Over the last twelve months, the stock lost about 30% of its value.
In 2025, the Shanghai-based group aims to double sales to about 440,000 units. After delivering 13,683 EVs in January, Nio needs to deliver 426,300 vehicles across its three brands over the next eleven months, an average of about 38,750 units.
The challenges were mentioned by Nio CEO William Li during the company’s third quarter earnings call. The chief executive acknowledged the subsidy-driven cancellations, explaining that late deliveries could cause customers to miss out on local financial incentives.
However, and based on the call’s transcript, it seems that the percentage mentioned refers to the orders canceled and not to the overall number of orders mentioned in the analyst’s research note.
In 2025, the Shanghai-based group aims to double sales to about 440,000 units. After delivering 13,683 EVs in January, Nio needs to deliver 426,300 vehicles across its three brands over the next eleven months, an average of about 38,750 units.
Macquarie also lowered its FY24 and FY25 sales estimates for Nio by 5% each. “We think it’s too early to determine whether Nio brand cannibalization risks are material or if Onvo demand will meet initial expectations,” Hsiao noted.
“While the Firefly launch in 1H25 presents upside potential, the weaker-than-expected demand for core Nio products and subsidy-related headwinds prompted an 18% miss in 4Q revenue guidance midpoint versus consensus.”
Separately, Macquarie upgraded Li Auto, a Chinese NEV maker, to Outperform from Neutral and set a price target of HK$113.
