Nio shares opened 4% higher on Friday after HSBC became the latest Wall Street firm to upgrade the Chinese EV maker following its first quarterly net profit.
Analyst Yuqian Ding raised Nio to Buy from Hold and lifted the price target to $6.80 from $4.80 on the US-listed shares, implying roughly 23% upside from Thursday’s close of $5.55.
While increasing the price target by 41.7% on the US-listed shares, HSBC also set a HK$53.20 target on the Hong Kong-listed stock.
The upgrade marks a sharp reversal for Ding, who downgraded the stock to Hold just 14 months ago and slashed the target by 38% in January after nearly doubling it three months earlier.
Ding said she now has stronger conviction in Nio‘s volume growth and earnings trajectory this year.
Vehicle deliveries in January and February reached 48,000 units, up 77% year-over-year, outpacing the broader EV market’s 26% decline over the same period — the firm noted.
HSBC expects above-industry earnings visibility in the first quarter of 2026, citing continued product mix benefits and less disruption from seasonal effects and the transition in EV purchase subsidies.
“We expect above-industry visibility for earnings in 1Q26, underpinned by continued mix benefits and less disruption to volumes from seasonal effects and the transition in subsidies,” the analyst wrote.
Ding highlighted the resilience of fully electric vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan through recent subsidy transitions and softer seasonal demand, noting that the ES8 portfolio in particular should benefit from robust orders supported by the cash incentives Nio announced on the first day of March.
“Operating leverage strengthened as revenues grew, while costs were reduced; SG&A and R&D each declined 15% q-o-q, primarily reflecting organisational optimisation and tighter cost-control execution,” Ding wrote in the new research note.
She added that the next product cycle, including a new large SUV expected in the third quarter, should further lift volumes and help sustain an improved product mix.
Ding’s Zigzag on Nio
HSBC’s analyst Ding upgraded the stock to Buy with a $69 target in July 2021 when shares traded at $44.
After the stock plunged, she slashed the target repeatedly through 2022 and 2023.
In October 2025, she nearly doubled the target to $8.80 following Nio‘s annual event and the ES8 launch.
Just three months later, in January, she cut the target by 38% to $4.80 and downgraded to Hold, citing diluted gross margins from the cheaper Onvo and Firefly sub-brands.
Friday’s upgrade reverses that January downgrade. The $6.80 target is still well below the $8.80 peak set five months ago.
Fourth Wave of Upgrades
HSBC’s note is the fourth Buy upgrade Nio has received since it reported fourth-quarter results on March 10, joining Nomura and Macquarie in turning bullish.
The stock has gained roughly 16% since the earnings release, closing at $5.55 on Thursday after surging as much as 15% in a single session on Tuesday.
The earnings report that triggered the wave showed Nio’s first quarterly net profit of 122.4 million yuan ($17.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by 124,807 vehicle deliveries — a 72% increase year-over-year.
Revenue reached 34.65 billion yuan, up 76% from a year earlier and 59% from the prior quarter.
Vehicle gross margin rose to 18.1%, up three percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong ES8 sales at an average selling price above 400,000 yuan.
Operating costs also declined sharply.
Selling, general and administrative expenses and research and development spending each fell 15% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting what the company described as organisational optimisation and tighter cost controls.
Where the Street Stands
The post-earnings analyst response has been overwhelmingly positive, though the degree of conviction varies.
Eight firms have issued updated targets since the results, with four now rating the stock a Buy and four holding at Neutral.
Nomura’s Frank Fan upgraded Nio to Buy from Neutral on March 12 — the firm’s first Buy rating on the stock in nearly three years — while cutting the price target to $6.60 from $8.40.
Fan said Nio has improved operationally and financially over the past two quarters and is entering a healthy business cycle.
Nomura expects non-GAAP operating profit breakeven in fiscal 2026 and forecasts a 25% shipment compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2028.
Macquarie’s Eugene Hsiao upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and raised the target to $6.50 from $6.10, citing strong demand for the ES8 and Firefly models and a 44% quarter-over-quarter volume surge.
However, Hsiao trimmed his 2026 delivery forecast by 8% to account for competitive pressures and noted that ES9 deliveries are scheduled to begin on June 1.
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $7.00 target — the highest among the banks tracked — pointing to founder William Li’s projection of 40-50% delivery growth annually over the next two years, fuelled by the ES9, ES7, and Onvo L80 launches.
Bank of America raised its target to $6.70 from $6.30 while maintaining a Neutral stance, crediting the strong model pipeline and operating expense discipline but flagging sector headwinds including lower EV purchase subsidies and cost inflation expected this year.
Bernstein’s Eunice Lee maintained the most cautious view among the group, reiterating Market Perform with a $5.50 target.
Lee flagged Nio‘s 44% year-over-year decline in research and development spending to 2.0 billion yuan in the quarter, warning that the cut could leave the company exposed as competitors make rapid progress in advanced driver-assistance systems.
JPMorgan held its Overweight rating but had already trimmed the target to $7.00 from $8.00 in a February note, cautioning that China’s auto industry is likely to underperform in 2026 as underlying passenger vehicle growth turns negative.
Goldman Sachs, which raised its target to $7.00 from $4.30 back in October, maintained Neutral rating on the stock.
Analyst Tina Hou expects non-GAAP EBIT breakeven in 2028, one year earlier than previously forecast.
What Comes Next
Nio is scheduled to launch the ES9 — its largest SUV to date and the successor to the ES8 — on April 10, followed by the Onvo L80 in the second quarter and a refreshed ES7 in the third quarter.
Management has guided for 40-50% delivery growth in 2026, which would translate to approximately 456,000 to 489,000 vehicles for the year.
The stock has rallied roughly 84% from its 52-week low of $3.02 reached in April 2025 but remains more than 91% below its all-time high of $66.99 set in January 2021.
Nio shares closed at $5.55 on Thursday.
