HSBC lowered its price targets on Chinese EV makers Nio and XPeng on Monday, slashing Nio by 38% just three months after nearly doubling it.
Shares of both companies traded 2-3% lower in Tuesday’s pre-market session following the cuts, amid a broader market selloff on concerns of a new round of tariff tensions after President Donald Trump said eight NATO members’ US imports will face escalating tariffs linked to the acquisition of Greenland.
Stock futures have also pointed to a lower opening on early Tuesday, while Tesla shares fell nearly 3% to $425 in pre-market trading.
HSBC analyst Yuqian Ding lowered his price target on Nio to $4.80 from $7.80, a 38% reduction, while maintaining a Hold rating.
Based on Friday’s closing price of $4.71, the new target implies upside potential of just 2%.
The cut reverses much of the optimism HSBC expressed in October 2025, when Ding nearly doubled his price target to $7.80 from $4.10, citing sales momentum from the Onvo L90 launch and the third-generation ES8 flagship SUV.
The stock was trading in the $7-8 range at the time.
Despite the upgrade last October, HSBC reduced its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 by 26% to 39%, citing lower gross margins due to a diluted product mix from the cheaper Onvo and Firefly sub-brands.
Nio shares have fallen more than 33% over the past three months as investors await fourth-quarter results, which are expected in early March.
The company will disclose whether it met its non-GAAP profitability target — a milestone CEO William Li said last week is “achievable” despite the results still being audited.
Both Nio and XPeng are expected to report fourth-quarter financial results in early March.
Four Years of Declining Targets
HSBC has consistently trimmed its Nio price target over the past four years as the stock has fallen from its all-time high of $66.99 reached in January 2021.
In February 2021, with the stock trading around $47, Ding raised his price target from $44.70 to $54, stating that “clearly EV adoption is happening faster than we thought.”
By July 2021, with shares at $44, Ding upgraded Nio to Buy with a $69 target — implying 57% upside.
But after the stock dropped to $36 in less than three months, HSBC slashed the target to $47.
In November 2021, the bank raised its target from $47 to $53 when the stock traded at $38.41.
Exactly one year ago, in January 2025, Ding downgraded Nio to Hold from Buy and cut the price target by 32% to $4.50 from $7.20 — just days after the Chinese EV maker reported record monthly and quarterly deliveries.
Nio Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, Nio plans to increase vehicle deliveries by 40-50%, targeting 456,000 to 489,000 units.
The company will launch three new large SUVs this year.
As EV reported Monday, Nio is tentatively scheduling the ES9 launch for April 10. The model will become its flagship SUV, succeeding the ES8.
Additionally, sub-brand Onvo will launch the five-seat L80 following the L90, which launched in summer 2025 and boosted Nio Group sales in its first three months before volumes declined sharply.
The third model is the revamped SUV ES7 — a year after the first iteration of the model was discontinued in the Chinese market due to low demand.
As of press time Tuesday, Nio shares were trading at $4.56, down 3.2%.
