Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Nio shares Thursday by nearly 63%, citing improved sales momentum and an expanded model lineup through 2026, though the bank maintained its Neutral rating.
Hou raised sales volume estimates for 2026 through 2030 by 6% to 11%, pointing to stronger model competitiveness from recent launches.
“We see improved model competitiveness from Nio‘s recent new launches (i.e. L90 and ES8) has led to continuously improving sales over the past quarter,” she wrote in a research note.
Goldman Sachs increased the price target to $7.00 from $4.30 on the US-listed shares.
The new target from analyst Tina Hou still implies a slight downside from Wednesday’s closing price of $7.14.
Nio‘s US-listed shares have surged nearly 64% year to date, with most gains concentrated in recent months following the pre-launch of the L90 model under the Onvo sub-brand.
The Chinese electric vehicle maker delivered 31,305 vehicles in August and 34,749 in September.
Nio is expected to report a new all-time monthly delivery record for October this Saturday, despite a slowdown in production and deliveries across China due to national holidays in the first days of the month.
Management said in early September it aims to deliver about 150,000 vehicles globally in the fourth quarter.
Nio Group delivered about 10,300 electric vehicles in China between October 20 and 26, marking the second consecutive week above the 10,000 mark, according to CarFans platform founder Sun Shaojun.
The main Nio brand accounted for more than 4,300 units, while Onvo delivered about 4,500 and Firefly more than 1,500.
Demand for the ES8 remains robust, with delivery wait times of 22 to 23 weeks as of Thursday, down slightly from 24 to 26 weeks a week earlier. New orders placed today are expected to be delivered in April 2026.
The company’s 2025 performance is tracking below its earlier targets. Last year NIO said it aimed to double vehicle deliveries in 2025 from the approximately 221,000 delivered in 2024, implying a goal of over 440,000 units.
Even if it hits the 150,000 target for the fourth quarter, the year’s total would reach only about 351,000 units—90,000 units short of the target.
For 2026, Nio hasn’t revealed a delivery target. The fourth-quarter production rate would translate into 600,000 EVs delivered globally in 2026 if maintained throughout the year.
The EV maker is accelerating its product cadence heading into 2026.
“The company has stepped up new model pipeline into 2026, with two new launches (i.e. L80 and ES9) as well as another facelift (i.e. ES7), which we expect to contribute further to the current positive sales momentum given similar level of competitiveness/improvement as exhibited by L90/ES8,” Hou wrote.
The ES9, set to become Nio‘s largest model ever launched, will be launched in the second quarter of next year — the founder and CEO William Li said last weekend.
The current ES7, in its second generation, ranks among the lowest performing models in sales. The five-seat model is positioned above the entry-level ES6 SUV, which is sold as the EL6 in Europe.
Higher volumes should drive margin improvements, according to Goldman Sachs.
“As a result of higher volume and scale economics, our gross margins are 2%-3% higher vs. before, resulting in an increase in 2026E-2030E non-GAAP EPS from Rmb-5.14-Rmb2.28 to Rmb-2.05-Rmb3.32,” Hou wrote.
The bank also expects stronger cash generation.
“Our accumulated free cash flow during 2026E-2030E is also meaningfully stronger to Rmb22bn from Rmb11bn before,” the analyst said.
Goldman Sachs now expects Nio to reach full-year non-GAAP EBIT break-even in 2028, a year earlier than previously forecast.
“We roll forward valuation by one year and our 12-month DCF-based target prices rise to US$7.0/HK$55.0 (vs. previously US$4.3/HK$33.3) for the ADR/H-share, implying -2%/+1% upside. We maintain Neutral rating with limited upside,” Hou concluded.
