Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Bernstein issued a client note on the 2025 outlook for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers in the U.S., Europe, and China, citing challenges in Western markets and contrasting growth prospects in China.
The firm noted that EV sales in Western markets remain under pressure, prompting automakers in the U.S. and Europe to lower production targets. In June, General Motors reduced its 2024 EV production forecast from 300,000 to 250,000 units. In August, Ford delayed the launch of a new electric pickup truck to 2027 and canceled plans for a three-row electric SUV. Ford CFO John Lawler said investments in EVs had been reduced to 30% of the company’s capital budget, down from 40%.
In September, Volvo revised its target to produce only fully electric cars by 2030, saying it now expects to sell hybrid vehicles beyond that date. German automaker Porsche also scaled back its EV sales target earlier this year.
Bernstein projects Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers to achieve sales growth exceeding 45% this year and 20%-25% in 2025, despite the end of some incentives in the country. The firm added that plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales is expected to outpace the broader market.
At the third quarter earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted the company’s 2025 sales would rise by 20% to 30%. Tesla’s rival BYD has not yet released any official estimates for next year’s sales after breaking this year’s goal of 3.6 million units.
Bernstein said Western EV makers face constrained growth, while Chinese automakers are “planning for more growth” after limiting capacity expansion for much of 2024. It noted increasing competition and price pressure in China’s domestic market and identified overseas markets as a key area for Chinese EV makers to expand.
The Stellantis-backed brand Leapmotor has announced in early November that it expects to deliver half a million units next year, doubling 2024’s goal. Nio’s founder and CEO William Li said in November the company is confident on doubling this year’s output in 2025 hinting at more than 400,000 vehicles across the three brands Nio, Onvo and the soon to be launched Firefly.
Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
