Three Wall Street firms lowered their price targets on Lucid Motors on Wednesday, a day after the electric vehicle maker reported a record quarterly operating loss of $1.065 billion and 2026 production guidance that came in well below analyst expectations.
The downgrades centre on the lower than expected production guidance Lucid announced for this year.
Despite starting production of its third model in “late 2026,” the company expects the annual growth rate to slow.
The range of between 25,000 and 27,000 vehicles for 2026 was seen by Cantor Fitzgerald as “mildly disappointing” given it fell below the Visible Alpha consensus of approximately 34,000 units and Cantor’s own preliminary estimate of roughly 39,000.
The gap suggests the Street had expected a more aggressive ramp than Lucid is planning.
During the earnings conference call, interim chief executive Marc Winterhoff said the first model of the new platform won’t represent a meaningful volume in 2026.
Cantor Fitzgerald delivered the sharpest price cut, reducing its target to $14 from $21 — a 33% reduction — while maintaining a Neutral rating. Baird analyst Ben Kallo trimmed his target to $13 from $14, also at Neutral.
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro held his target at $17 with a Hold rating but described the results as “modestly negative for the shares.”
What the Analysts Said
Cantor cut its 2026 production and delivery estimates to 26,050 and 23,185 respectively, from prior forecasts of 40,000 and 29,160 — reductions of 35% and 20%.
Revenue expectations were lowered to approximately $2.1 billion from $2.5 billion, and gross margin assumptions were revised to negative 30% from negative 18%.
“Our Neutral rating is unchanged, and we lower our PT to $14, driven by lower production, guidance, persistent high negative gross margin, additional capital needs, a worsening macro environment, and tariff uncertainty,” the firm wrote.
Cantor also removed previously modelled revenue from the Aston Martin technology licensing partnership.
Stifel’s Gengaro noted that while revenue of $522.7 million beat his estimate by 7.9% and consensus by 13.8%, the underlying profitability metrics were significantly worse than expected.
Gross loss of $421.9 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $874.7 million both trailed his forecasts of negative $290.6 million and negative $460.1 million respectively, which he attributed to continued tariff impacts and higher operating expenses.
Free cash flow of negative $1.24 billion also missed his estimate of negative $851.4 million and the consensus of negative $941.4 million.
Gengaro said the recent 12% US workforce reduction and the projected $500 million in cost savings over three years “should aid margins and profitability,” but noted he is awaiting further detail on autonomy and the robotaxi programme at the company’s March 12 Investor Day.
The Earnings Picture
Lucid‘s fourth-quarter revenue of $522.7 million exceeded the average analyst estimate of $468 million compiled by LSEG by approximately 12%, driven by higher deliveries and increased average selling prices as the Gravity SUV mix built through the quarter.
But the beat on the top line was overshadowed by losses that widened.
The GAAP net loss of $3.62 per diluted share was significantly wider than the $2.62 loss analysts had forecast.
The $1.065 billion operating loss surpassed the previous quarterly record of $942 million set in Q3 — a 13% sequential increase.
Lucid has not recorded a single quarter of declining operating losses since early 2025.
On a full-year basis, the operating loss widened to $3.50 billion from $3.02 billion in 2024.
The figure has risen in three of the past four years: $2.59 billion in 2022, $3.10 billion in 2023, $3.02 billion in 2024, and $3.50 billion in 2025.
Lucid shares hit a new all-time low of $8.90 in Tuesday’s after-hours session immediately following the earnings release — equivalent to $0.89 before the company’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split in August 2025.
The stock has lost more than 98% of its value from its November 2021 peak.
