Stifel said on Monday that it expects Lucid Motors shares to rise more than 70% from current levels, days after the firm attended the EV maker’s first Investor Day in New York.
Analyst Stephen Gengaro reiterated a Hold rating and $17.00 price target on Lucid.
Based on Friday’s close of $9.90, the target implies upside potential of 71.7%.
“At its Investor Day, Lucid highlighted significant updates across its Midsize platform, autonomous capabilities, and provided medium- to long-term outlook,” Gengaro wrote in a research note.
As of press time, Lucid shares were rising 1.8% to $10.08 after edging 0.6% higher on Friday.
The stock is down 6.4% year to date and has more than halved over the past 12 months.
What Stifel Highlighted
Gengaro pointed to three areas from the four-hour event that he described as most significant.
On the midsize platform, the analyst noted that management projects the new vehicle line will expand Lucid‘s addressable market to approximately $350 billion by 2030, up from roughly $40 billion today.
Lucid named its first two midsize models — Cosmos and Earth — at the event, with the Cosmos expected to start under $50,000 when production begins in late 2026.
Auto reviewer Kyle Conner became the first person outside Lucid to sit inside the Cosmos described it as a “younger, more modern” Gravity.
On autonomy, Stifel noted the company outlined a roadmap toward Level 4 capability by 2029.
Lucid entered the ADAS subscription race with tiers from $69 to $199 per month starting in 2027.
The company also unveiled a two-seat dedicated robotaxi concept called Lunar that it claims would cut fleet operating costs by 40%.
On the financial outlook, Gengaro highlighted that management reiterated 2026 production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 units while projecting positive gross margin in the midterm and free cash flow by the end of the decade.
CFO Taoufiq Boussaid outlined a path to 100,000 units of annual production by 2028.
Stifel’s Price Target History
Monday’s note marks the first time in over a year that Gengaro has maintained his Lucid price target without cutting it.
In August 2025, the analyst slashed the target by 30% to $2.10 from $3.00 — equivalent to $21.00 post-split — hours before Lucid’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split took effect.
He cited gross profit and adjusted EBITDA missing his estimates and warned the company would “require additional capital over the next few years.”
In November, Gengaro cut the target again to $17.00 from $21.00 after Lucid reported its largest quarterly operating loss on record and reduced its 2025 production guidance for the second time in three months.
That note was published the same day Lucid shares hit a new all-time low. Gengaro flagged “weak production execution, uncertainty around profit margins, rising cash burn, and US policy changes impacting EVs” but maintained that the Air and Gravity were “excellent products.”
Gengaro had previously said he was “awaiting clarity on Gravity sales and the rollout of the midsize” before becoming more constructive.
Oil Price Tailwind
Stifel also flagged a potential demand catalyst that other analysts have not emphasised.
“Despite macroeconomic headwinds, LCID believes the EV market is poised for significant growth over the next decade, citing approximately 3.5x growth and a 15% CAGR by 2035 from 2025 levels, and we believe the recent oil price spike could ignite some US demand,” Gengaro wrote.
Oil prices have hovered near $100 a barrel since the escalation of the Iran conflict in late February, with Brent crude trading above $102 as of Monday morning.
The surge has raised operating costs for internal combustion vehicles and could push some consumers toward electric alternatives.
The Uber Deal
One of the event’s biggest disclosures was the expansion of Lucid’s robotaxi partnership with Uber.
As EV reported, Uber’s president Andrew Macdonald said on stage that the ride-hailing company is finalising a deal to deploy Lucid’s midsize platform as a robotaxi at volumes comparable to the 20,000 Gravity SUVs already under contract — effectively doubling the programme to approximately 40,000 vehicles across two platforms.
The company also detailed a software roadmap spanning hands-free highway driving for the Gravity this year, city drive assist by year-end, and an AI assistant — all under a rebuilt software organisation that SVP Emad Dlala said he is “very confident” will avoid the Gravity’s launch mistakes on the Cosmos.
Separately, Lucid said it is rethinking its supply chain amid global disruptions and presented data showing that the Gravity outsold the Rivian R1S in its third full quarter on the US market.
Stock Context
Lucid shares fell 6.7% on the day of the Investor Day as a broader market sell-off driven by surging oil prices overwhelmed the news.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% that session.
The stock has fallen 54% over the past 12 months and trades more than 90% below its all-time high reached in November 2021.
Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025 and posted a full-year net loss of $2.70 billion.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund holds a majority stake in the company and has invested more than $9 billion since 2018.
On Monday morning, the company announced Wackenhut as its first European retail partner, beginning a shift from direct sales to a dealer-based distribution model across the continent.
