RBC Capital became the latest Wall Street firm to lower its price target on Lucid Motors, following the EV maker’s mixed fourth-quarter results and its reduced production forecast for this year.
The Canadian bank reiterated on Wednesday a Sector Perform rating on the stock, while cutting the price target to $10 from $14 — according to a new research note first obtained by PriceTarget.
The new price target implies a 2.7% downside on the stock price, based on Wednesday’s close at $10.28.
The stock rebounded on the last market session, after falling to record lows for two consecutive days.
On Monday, Lucid shares hit a low of $9.12 before dropping further to $8.90 immediately after the earnings results were released.
Since hitting a $648.60 peak in early 2021, Lucid‘s stock has lost 98.4% of its value.
Analyst Tom Narayan wrote in the new researchn note that, despite the company’s gross profit miss, “unit economics appear to be improving.”
Lucid reported a $523 million revenue for the fourth quarter, more than doubling from the previous year.
However, gross margins remained negative at 81%.
Production
Still, the analyst said the firm was disappointed by both a “lower-than-expected” 2026 production guidance and the production restatement made on Tuesday’s report.
Lucid produced fewer electric vehicles in 2025 than it had announced in early January, revising its full-year production total to 17,840 units.
According to the company, the 538 vehicles had not completed “certain internal procedures required under its final validation process.”
The revision brings Lucid‘s full-year output just below the 18,000-unit threshold of the production guidance it had set in November.
However, the company described the result as “in-line” with its target of “approximately” 18,000 vehicles.
The EV maker expects to produce 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles, implying a 40% to 51% increase over the revised 2025 guidance.
Despite the rise year over year, the range fell below the Visible Alpha consensus of approximately 34,000 units.
Lucid is expected to begin production of its third model — the first one under the new mid-size platform — in “late 2026.”
When approached by analysts on Tuesday about the model’s contribution to this year’s guidance, the company’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff said “there will not be any meaningful numbers to be reported.”
Production will begin at Lucid‘s Saudi Arabia plant, where the timeline is “slightly ahead of schedule.”
It remains unclear whether the model will also be produced at the AMP-1 in Arizona.
The mid-sized platform will enable Lucid to enter a more affordable segment, boosting demand for its vehicles.
Winterhoff said the starting price is “around the average selling price of a new vehicle in the US since recently,” placing it squarely in the middle of the American new-car market, rather than the luxury fringe where the $69,900 Air and $79,900 Gravity currently compete.
Autonomy
The RBC Capital analyst also expressed concerns that software revenue may remain limited in the near term.
“While their robotaxi program appears on track, we are concerned about competition and limited software revenues near-term,” Narayan wrote.
On Tuesday’s call, Winterhoff told investors that the company’s plan for autonomy allows them to “provide highly competitive solutions, both for customer vehicles and robotaxis, designed to be executed in their shortest time possible with limited capital expenditure.”
With the “emerging global robotaxi market” seen as a “prime opportunity” for Lucid‘s technology, Winterhoff said the company is expecting autonomy to expand its total addressable market (TAM) “to an estimated $700 billion by 2035.”
Additionally, he said Lucid‘s “road map is clear: point-to-point autonomy rolling out in Gravity late this year, L3 targeted for 2028 and L4 targeted for 2029 starting with our midsized vehicles.”
Narayan said he is expecting to learn more about the EV maker’s autonomy solutions and its path to profitability during the upcoming Investor Day, scheduled for March 12.
