EV maker Lucid Motors saw its shares sink by more than 8% on Tuesday after reporting weaker than expected production and sales figures for the third quarter of the year.
The stock extended losses early Wednesday after CFRA downgraded it to its lowest possible rating in a new research note — first obtained by PriceTarget.
Analyst Garrett Nelson downgraded the rating of the California-based brand from Sell to Strong Sell while maintaining a price target of $10.00.
The price target, equivalent to $1.00 on a pre–reverse-split basis, implies a 54% downside from Tuesday’s closing price of $22.01.
As of press time, the stock is trading 3% lower at $21.35 during Wednesday’s pre-market trading session.
Nelson said the firm is keeping its 12-month price target of $10 but lowering earnings-per-share estimates following a disappointing third quarter.
“We lower our adjusted EPS estimates to -$11.15 from -$10.50 for 2025 and to -$11.50 from -$11.00 for 2026,” the analyst wrote. “LCID posted Q3 vehicle deliveries of 4,078 units (+47% Y/Y), well short of our 6,100 estimate.”
For production, CFRA was estimating Lucid to report 6,200 units.
“LCID’s Q3 production totaled 3,891 units (+116%), also well below our 6,200 forecast,” Nelson wrote.
Despite the interim chief executive Marc Winterhoff recently saying the team is still targeting to produce 20,000 units this year, CFRA’s analyst sees Lucid missing even the reduced guidance of 18,000 EVs.
“LCID did not update its full year production guidance of 18,000-20,000 units, but we now think it is likely to fall short of the guidance based on the disappointing Q3 total,” the analyst wrote.
Lucid produced 3,891 vehicles and delivered 4,078 in the quarter, while more than 1,000 additional units were pre-produced and will be assembled at its Saudi Arabian assembly plant.
Those vehicles will be counted as fourth-quarter production.
Citing the $7,500 EV credit deadline which increased demand across the EV industry, Nelson said the expectations were “much higher.”
“While LCID’s Y/Y volume increases were impressive on a percentage basis, we were expecting much higher volumes with the September 30 expiration of the federal EV tax credit,” he wrote.
As reported earlier this week, the EV maker is adding a second production shift at its Casa Grande, Arizona, plant.
The expansion was confirmed by interim Chief Executive Officer Marc Winterhoff, who said in a LinkedIn post that the company has “made preparations, including the addition of a second manufacturing shift, to finish 2025 strong.”
Nelson said in the research note that Lucid “has its work cut out to merely hit the low end of guidance, requiring a production record of 8,034 units in Q4.”
According to a research note from Cantor Fitzgerald, and first obtained by PriceTarget, consensus for the July–September period was estimating 4,286 EVs delivered and 5,175 vehicles produced.
The analyst also recalled the 1 for 10 reverse stock split announced in July which became effective last month after getting the shareholders’ approval.
“We lower our rating to Strong Sell following a significant rally for the shares over the past month following a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, noting the historical underperformance of equities following such moves,” Nelson added.
The company remains under pressure as supply chain setbacks persist and the expiration of the EV tax credits.
Compounding those challenges, Lucid has yet to appoint a new chief executive nearly eight months after Peter Rawlinson’s sudden exit in February.
