Cantor Fitzgerald said Lucid‘s fourth-quarter production and deliveries exceeded expectations, with output more than doubling year-over-year as the EV maker met its revised annual guidance.
“On 1/5, LCID pre-announced that it delivered 5,345 vehicles in 4Q25, above our estimate of 4,894, (and above 3,099 in 4Q24),” analyst Andres Sheppard wrote in a research note Monday.
“Additionally, LCID also pre-announced that it produced 8,412 vehicles in 4Q25, above our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 8,034/7,537 vehicles, (and above 3,386 in 4Q24),” Sheppard added.
For full-year 2025, Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles — in line with Visible Alpha consensus of 15,851 and above Cantor’s estimate of 15,390.
The figure represents a 55% increase from 10,241 vehicles delivered in 2024.
Lucid produced 18,378 vehicles in 2025, exceeding its annual production guidance of 18,000 units and more than doubling the 9,029 vehicles produced in 2024.
Upcoming Catalysts
Cantor highlighted several potential catalysts for Lucid shares.
The firm expects Gravity deliveries in Europe in the first half of 2026, an Analyst/Investor Day in Q1 2026, a midsize vehicle launch in late 2026 or early 2027.
Gravity deliveries in Europe are planned to begin later this month, according to the latest update from management.
Additionally, Sheppard named the launch of Uber/Nuro robotaxis in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, and completion of the AMP-2 facility in Saudi Arabia in late 2026 or the first half of 2027.
Completion of the Saudi Arabia factory will allow Lucid to manufacture vehicles at both the Arizona and Saudi sites, expanding its footprint.
Until now, the Saudi plant has only assembled vehicles pre-built at the US facility.
Lucid will report fourth-quarter earnings on February 24 after market close and host its earnings call at 5:30 p.m. ET.
“Our Neutral Rating and $21 PT on LCID are unchanged, pending a model update,” Sheppard wrote in Monday’s note.
Management Comments
On X, Lucid‘s VP of Communications Nick Twork said the company “made good progress closing out 2025.”
“Lucid made good progress closing out 2025, growing production and deliveries in a market where many peers moved in the opposite direction,” Twork wrote.
“Q4 production rose 116% QoQ as we ramped with discipline and focus. More on our Feb 24 earnings call,” Twork added.
Guidance History
The California-based EV maker had lowered its annual production target twice throughout 2025.
After beginning the year with a goal of 20,000 vehicles, Lucid reduced the range to between 18,000 and 20,000 units in August, then cut it further to 18,000 in early November.
Through the first three quarters of 2025, Lucid delivered 10,496 vehicles: 3,109 in Q1 (+58% YoY), 3,309 in Q2 (+38% YoY), and 4,078 in Q3 (+47% YoY).
The company needed to deliver at least 7,504 vehicles in Q4 to meet its revised target — ultimately exceeding that threshold by delivering 5,345 units.
