New vehicle registrations in Norway are on track for a sharp decline in January after the government tightened value-added tax rules on electric vehicles, preliminary data shows.
Total registrations through the first 23 days of January stood at approximately 1,600 units, according to registration tracker EU-EVs.
In January 2025, Volkswagen alone registered 2,119 vehicles — more than the entire market has recorded so far this month.
Official figures are expected to be released by Norway’s Road Traffic Information Council (OFV) on February 1.
January 21 marked the first meaningful registration day of the quarter. End-of-month figures are expected to improve after the typically slow opening weeks of the year.
The collapse follows the Norwegian government’s decision to lower the VAT exemption threshold from 500,000 kroner ($49,600) to 300,000 kroner starting on the first day of 2026.
The change means buyers of vehicles priced above the threshold now pay 25% VAT on the portion exceeding 300,000 kroner — equivalent to $30,400.
The full elimination of the VAT exemption, initially planned for 2027, has been pushed back to 2028.
Market Leaders Drop
Volkswagen leads the preliminary January registrations with 268 units and 17.1% market share, but that represents an 87% decline from the 2,119 vehicles it registered in January 2025.
Toyota registered 165 vehicles (10.5% share), down 87% from 1,297 a year earlier.
BMW recorded just 19 registrations compared with 548 in January 2025 — a 97% drop.
Volvo, backed by China’s Geely Holding Group, also registered 19 units, down 95% from 383.
Premium German brands were hit particularly hard. Audi registered 15 vehicles versus 397 a year ago, a 96% decline. Mercedes-Benz also recorded 15 registrations, down 96% from 373.
Other notable declines include Nissan Motor Co. with 45 units (down 91% from 524), Hyundai with 33 (down 87% from 252), Kia with 14 (down 94% from 230), and Skoda with 41 (down 85% from 268).
Kia launched earlier this month at the Brussels Auto Show its new entry level EV model, the Kia EV2.
Polestar, also backed by Geely, registered just 7 vehicles, down 96% from 173 in January 2025.
Maxus Surprise
Chinese commercial vehicle brand Maxus has registered 262 vehicles as of Friday, ranking second place and 16.7% market share — up from just 39 units in January 2025, a surge of more than 570%.
The Maxus E-Deliver van led all models with 241 registrations, ahead of the Volkswagen ID.3 with 150 and BYD’s ETP3 with 130.
Tesla Collapses
Tesla has registered just 63 vehicles in Norway through January 23, compared with 687 in January 2025 — a decline of 91%, the preliminary data shows.
The drop comes despite Tesla recording its best year ever in Norway in 2025.
The company registered a record 34,285 vehicles, a 41% increase from 2024, and held 19.4% of the market, according to OFV data. The Model Y was the country’s best-selling vehicle with 27,574 registrations.
Tesla‘s December was particularly strong, with 5,679 registrations representing 16.1% market share — its best December on record.
The Model Y accounted for 89% of Tesla’s Norwegian sales, with Model 3 making up the remaining 11%.
Chinese Brands Mixed
Chinese automakers, which increased their share of the Norwegian market from 10.4% in 2024 to 13.7% in 2025, are seeing mixed results in January.
BYD has registered 154 vehicles through January 23, down 11% from 173 in January 2025.
The company currently holds 9.8% market share — making it the fourth-largest brand so far this month.
The BYD ETP3 ranked third among models with 130 registrations, while the Dolphin recorded 17.
XPeng registered 16 vehicles, down 90% from 163 in January 2025. The G6 SUV accounted for 14 of those registrations.
Later this year, the brand will release several new models in the Norwegian market — including the MPV X9, which is set to rival the VW ID.Buzz.
Other Chinese brands in the preliminary data include MG with 33 units (up from 126, but MG had a different monthly pattern last year), Deepal with 13, Zeekr with 12, JAC with 42, and Dongfeng with 9.
Nio Warns of VAT Impact
Nio has registered just six vehicles in the first 23 days of January, all of which were the entry-level EL6 SUV, according to EU-EVs data.
Norway was Nio‘s first international market — the company opened its first European showroom in Oslo in September 2021.
The EV maker warned last week that the tightened VAT rules have “significantly impacted the total price” of its vehicles.
“The VAT exemption now only applies to the first 300,000 Norwegian kroner of the purchase price,” Nio Norway wrote on LinkedIn.
“For EVs in the family and SUV segments, this has significantly impacted the total price — particularly when the battery is included in the purchase,” the company added.
The company is promoting its Battery as a Service program as a way to mitigate the tax burden. Under the scheme, customers purchase vehicles without the battery and lease it monthly, reducing the taxable purchase price.
Full-Year 2025 Rankings
For full-year 2025, Tesla led the Norwegian market with 34,233 registrations and 19.4% share, followed by Volkswagen with 28,678 (16.2%) and Volvo with 12,100 (6.9%).
Toyota ranked fourth with 8,942 units, followed by Skoda with 8,611, BMW with 8,486, Ford Motor Co. with 8,342, and Audi with 7,125.
Among Chinese brands, BYD ranked 10th with 5,564 units (3.2% share), MG 11th with 5,163 (2.9%), and XPeng 14th with 4,003 (2.3%). Polestar recorded 3,668 registrations for 2.1% market share.
The Toyota BZ4X was the second best-selling model in 2025 with 6,646 units, followed by the Tesla Model 3 with 6,603.
Volkswagen placed three models in the top 10: the ID.4 with 8,381, the ID.Buzz with 8,178, and the ID.7 with 6,436.
