Dacia Sandero ICE vehicle
Image Credit: Dacia

Europe’s ICE Market Shrinks by a Third in Two Years

New car registrations in the European Union fell 3.9% in January 2026, with demand for internal combustion engine vehicles continuing to fall.

Fully electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid vehicles collectively accounted for roughly 68% of all new registrations in the first month of the year, while the combined share of petrol and diesel cars dropped to 30.1% — down from 39.5% a year earlier.

In 2025, petrol registrations fell 18.7% and diesel 24.2%, bringing their combined annual share to 35.5%, down from 45.2% in 2024.

France led the petrol decline at 32%, followed by Germany at 21.6%, Italy at 18.2%, and Spain at 16%.

The data, published Tuesday by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), showed 154,230 new battery electric cars registered in the EU in January, capturing a 19.3% market share — up from 14.9% one year ago.

Plug-in hybrids rose to 78,741 units and a 9.8% share, from 7.4% while hybrids remained the single largest powertrain category at 308,364 units and 38.6% of the market.

Petrol Collapse

The steepest decline was in petrol registrations, which fell 28.2% across the EU to 175,989 units — a 22% market share, down from 29.5% in January 2025.

France recorded the sharpest contraction at 48.9%, followed by Germany at 29.9%, Italy at 25.5%, and Spain at 22.5%.

Every major EU market saw double-digit declines.

Demand for Diesel vehicles has also continued its retreat, falling 22.3% to an 8.1% market share.

The trajectory has been consistent: petrol and diesel together held 48.7% of the EU market in January 2024, 39.5% in January 2025, and now 30.1% — a decline of nearly 19 percentage points in two years.

On a full-year basis, their combined share fell from 45.2% in 2024 to 35.5% in 2025, with petrol alone dropping from 33.3% to 26.6% and diesel from 11.9% to 8.9%.

France surged 52.1% and Germany grew 23.8%, while Belgium fell 11.5% and the Netherlands declined 35.4%.

The Italian market saw the most dramatic swing in plug-in hybrid demand, with registrations jumping 134.2%. Spain rose 66.7% and Germany 23%.

Norway

Including EFTA and the UK, total European registrations fell 3.5% to 961,382 cars, according to ACEA’s broader dataset.

The sharpest single-market decline was Norway, where registrations dropped roughly 76% year-over-year.

The Norwegian collapse was anticipated as the country’s government began scaling back its generous incentive framework.

From January 1, 2026, the VAT exemption on EV purchases was lowered from NOK 500,000 (~$52,340) to NOK 300,000 (~$31,400), with further reductions to NOK 150,000 in 2027 and full phase-out by 2028.

The government simultaneously increased registration taxes on combustion-engine vehicles by NOK 20,000–30,000, equivalent to $2,100 to $3,140.

The result was a massive pull-forward of demand into December 2025, when Norway registered over 35,000 cars — more than double a typical month.

Fully electric vehicles still captured 94% of Norwegian registrations in January, down marginally from 95.8% a year earlier. Only 98 diesel cars and 7 petrol vehicles were registered in the entire country.

Brand-Level Data

At the manufacturer level, BYD continued its rapid European expansion, with registrations surging 165% year-over-year across the EU, UK, and EFTA region, according to ACEA data.

Tesla‘s decline extended to a thirteenth consecutive month, with registrations falling 17%.

Among legacy automakers, Volkswagen fell 3.8%, BMW 5.7%, Renault 15%, and Toyota 13.4%. Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz were among the few to post gains, rising 6.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

Cláudio Afonso founded CARBA in early 2021 and launched the news blog EV later that year. Following a 1.5-year hiatus, he relaunched EV in April 2024. In late 2024, he also started AV, a blog dedicated to the autonomous vehicle industry.