China exported 108,392 passenger vehicles to Russia in January and February combined, nearly doubling from the depressed first two months of 2025 when the market was contracting sharply.
Several state-owned Chinese automakers entered Russia at scale after Western and Japanese brands withdrew following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
The 97.2% year on year increase in the first months of 2026 kept Russia as China’s largest single export destination for passenger vehicles, according to data published on Monday by Chinese automotive research firm Gasgoo.
The figures cover vehicles shipped from China rather than retail registrations inside Russia.
The UAE ranked second with 103,926 units (up by 53.0%), followed by Brazil with 98,898 — which recorded a 296.1% surge.
The broader Russian market continues to contract and Chinese automakers face escalating pressure from Moscow to assemble locally rather than import.
The United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Belgium rounded out the top destinations, with all except Belgium and Mexico posting double-digit or triple-digit growth.
Few NEVs
However — when filtering the list to only include fully electric or hybrid vehicles — Russia exits the top 10.
Brazil led that category with 76,446 NEV units (+398.1%), followed by the UK (51,249, +139.9%) and the UAE (46,953, +187.9%).
China’s export relationship with Russia is led by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, while its NEV exports are concentrated in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.
A Base Effect
The 97.2% year-on-year surge in exports to Russia is striking but needs context. The comparison period — January and February 2025 — was exceptionally weak.
Russia’s overall car market fell 25% year-on-year in Q1 2025 as high interest rates, a depreciating ruble, and steep increases in the utilisation fee crushed demand across the board.
Inside Russia, the picture remains one of contraction.
In February 2026, domestically produced vehicles outsold Chinese-brand cars for the first time in three years — 31,600 versus 31,100 units.
The Gasgoo export data and the Russian retail data measure different things: the export figures capture vehicles leaving Chinese ports while the retail figures include what Russian consumers actually buy.
The gap between the two reflects pipeline inventory, vehicles in transit, and units destined for local assembly from semi-knocked-down kits.
From 9% to 62% — and Back
Chinese automakers entered Russia at scale after Western and Japanese brands withdrew following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Their combined market share surged from 9% in 2021 to approximately 61% by 2023 and an estimated 62% by revenue in 2024, according to Avtostat.
Russia absorbed approximately 1.16 million Chinese vehicles in 2024, making it one of China’s largest passenger vehicle export markets globally.
The 2024 peak — 1.571 million total passenger car sales in Russia, the best since 2019 — masked the structural pressures building beneath the surface.
In 2025, Russia’s new car market contracted 15.6% to approximately 1.33 million units.
Sales of Chinese-made vehicles fell 23% to 769,600 units, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) data.
Vehicles assembled in China and imported fell even harder — 38% to 489,000 units — while Chinese-brand vehicles assembled locally in Russia rose, as Moscow’s protectionist policies began to redirect production.
Chinese brands’ share of Russia’s passenger car market ended 2025 at 51.7%, down from 58.5% a year earlier.
Their share of the total market, including trucks and commercial vehicles, fell below 50% for the first time in several years to 48.7%.
The Utilisation Fee
The single largest factor behind the shift is Russia’s utilisation fee — a one-time recycling charge levied at vehicle registration that functions as a de facto import tariff.
The fee was hiked 70% to 85% in October 2024 and now stands at approximately 668,000 rubles ($8,700) for a standard 1-2 litre engine car, on top of a 15% import tariff. Annual increases of 10% to 20% are mandated through 2030.
The fee is reimbursed for vehicles meeting Russian localisation thresholds, creating a structural cost advantage for locally assembled models.
For Chinese exporters, the combined tariff and fee burden exceeds $7,000 per vehicle — more than the European Union’s countervailing duties on Chinese EVs, according to Rhodium Group.
Russia’s central bank rate of 21% has further depressed demand by making car loans prohibitively expensive.
Divergent Brand Strategies
Great Wall Motor‘s Haval brand was the only major Chinese name to gain market share in 2025, rising from 12% to 12.8% with approximately 173,000 units sold.
Haval operates the only fully Chinese-owned, full-cycle manufacturing plant in Russia, located in Tula.
The facility produced more than 130,000 vehicles in 2025 and is expanding to 200,000 units per year. Local production exempts Haval from the utilisation fee.
Chery, Russia’s second-largest Chinese brand with approximately 99,800 units in 2025, took a different path.
Rather than invest in Russian manufacturing, the company began assembling semi-knocked-down kits at the former Volkswagen plant in Kaluga under the Russian brand name Tenet.
The rebranding distances the Chery name from Russian operations at a time when the company is seeking a Hong Kong stock exchange listing and faces pressure to reduce Russia exposure to attract international investors.
Geely — which has recently surpassed BYD in domestic sales — has avoided direct Russian production, instead manufacturing through a Belarusian joint venture under the Belgee brand, which ships duty-free into Russia.
Belgee sales grew 96.5% in 2025.
Geely is also building a factory in Almaty, Kazakhstan, due to start in 2027 — widely viewed as a secondary route into the Russian market that avoids direct localisation pressure and sanctions exposure.
Changan posted a 37.6% decline.
Corporate Silence
None of the major Chinese automakers — Chery, GWM, Geely, or Changan — have issued public statements addressing the Russian sales decline, dealership closures, or localisation pressure.
Several Chinese brands have begun quietly redirecting investment toward Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — countries offering lower regulatory barriers, no sanctions exposure, and porous borders with Russia.
Taxi Localisation
Since the first day of March, Russia restricted taxi operations to vehicles meeting localisation thresholds.
Only Haval and Tenet models currently qualify among Chinese-origin brands. The restriction phases in across all regions by 2030.
In January and February 2026, Haval led Chinese brands inside Russia with 20,900 units (13% market share), followed by Tenet with 17,600 (10.9%).
Global Context
The Gasgoo data shows China’s passenger vehicle exports diversifying beyond Russia.
The top 10 destinations in January-February 2026 spanned the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia), Latin America (Brazil, Mexico), Europe (UK, Italy, Belgium, Spain), and Asia-Pacific (Australia).
The NEV export picture is more geographically dispersed. Italy recorded the fastest growth at 564.1% year-on-year, followed by Brazil (+398.1%), Germany (+289.0%), and South Korea (+213.3%).
Europe accounted for five of the top 10 NEV export destinations.
Mexico was the only major market to post a decline, with exports falling 54.1% — partly due to demand pulled forward to late last year ahead of anticipated tariff increases in 2026.
Chinese EVs in the US
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump stated that the 100% tariff on Chinese car imports was “about the only thing” the Biden Administration did well.
Last month, five major US auto trade groups — representing GM, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, and others — wrote to the White House urging it to maintain all restrictions and block Chinese factory investment.
