Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a new research note published on Monday that the firm remains ‘Neutral’ on Polestar, despite the brand reporting second-quarter deliveries that exceeded the firm’s estimates.
The EV maker said last week that it delivered 18,049 vehicles in the second quarter, a 38% surge compared to the same period a year ago.
It was the company’s best quarterly sales result since late 2022, marked by sales records in several markets during June — it had its best sales month ever in the Netherlands, in Sweden, and in the UK.
Registrations in the US surged 83% to 581 vehicles, while in Germany the brand hit a new two-year high. In Sweden, where it is based, it surpassed 1,000 monthly units for the first time.
In the first quarter, Polestar had delivered “an estimated 12,304” vehicles, meaning that April-June figures increased by 46.7% sequentially.
Cantor Fitzgerald had forecast the Geely-backed brand to deliver approximately 11,744 vehicles — about 6,000 units, or 35%, below the actual figure.
In the first half of 2025, Polestar delivered 30,319 vehicles, up 51.2% from the same period a year ago, when the automaker registered 20,047 units.
Sheppard reminded, however, that the company “paused its FY25 financial guidance”earlier this year, citing “worsening macro conditions and tariff uncertainty.”
Polestar released its 2024 annual report in May, together with the first quarter’s earnings results.
By then, the company said it continues to “work closely with Geely Group on securing new equity and debt funding” while noting that it is “still at an acceptable debt level in relation to its loan covenants.”
“Given the company’s additional capital needs,” the analyst expects that Polestar will need over $2 billion “through 2028.”
As of the end of March, the EV maker had $732 million in cash, with the company saying it was “nearly at the same level as the 2024 year-end cash position of USD 739 million.”
Net loss reached $190 million.
According to Sheppard, Cantor sees “Polestar as materially impacted by tariffs and geopolitics, since the company is primarily producing its vehicles in China.”
In May, when it reported its first quarter financial results, CEO Michael Lohscheller warned that the company would shift focus toward Europe, its most profitable region, which accounts for around 75% of Polestar‘s total business.
According to Lohscheller, the U.S. represents approximately 11% and China plays “a small role” in its business, despite production being located there.
Polestar vehicles would be subject to import duties on both the EU — which is now renegotiating with China — and the U.S.
China and the U.S. have reached a temporary agreement, according to which the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 35%, while American goods imported to China were given a 10% duty.
In April, rates had been as high as 145%, during the trade war that broke out between the two countries, after Trump announced country-specific import duties. The U.S. also imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts.
The only model that the EV maker manufactures in the US is the Polestar 3 SUV.
According to the CEO, the brand is “relatively well positioned in the U.S.” when it comes to the impact of tariffs, since their “volume is localized in the Volvo plant in Charleston, South Carolina.”
The Polestar 4 is planned to begin production in South Korea later this year and is set to be delivered in the U.S. starting “this fall.”
The analyst concluded that “nonetheless, Polestar reaffirmed its annual retail sales volume growth target of 30-35%” between 2025 and 2027.
To meet the low end of that range, Polestar would need to sell approximately 58,300 vehicles, up from 44,851 units in 2024.
The company must deliver at least 27,947 vehicles in the second half of the year to meet the 30% growth threshold.
