J.D. Power released on Thursday a new report estimating that US electric vehicle sales will drop 37.6% year over year in November, continuing the decline triggered by the EV tax credit deadline.
According to the data analysis firm, battery electric vehicles (BEV) are expected to represent 6% of all vehicle sales in November.
While the figures are consistent with October’s estimates, they are well below the 12.9% recorded in September, the firm noted.
Thomas King, J.D. Power’s President of OEM Solutions, commented on the results, saying that the anticipation of the EV credit deadline prompted consumers to “accelerate buying decisions,” which has caused sales to decline since October.
“Now, two months after the credit expired, the industry continues to feel the effect of those accelerated purchases,” he wrote.
Pricing Strategy
According to Tyson Jominy, Senior VP of OEM Customer Success, pricing trends further highlight the evolving EV landscape, as average prices on electric vehicles have risen 14% from November 2024.
EV prices have surged by $6,500 year over year to $52,400, making them the second most expensive powertrain after PHEVs.
ICE vehicles average $46,000 — about $8,000 lower — while traditional hybrids remain the most affordable option at $42,200.
“As the market adjusts to life without federal tax credits, manufacturers will need to rethink go-to-market strategies to balance affordability, profitability, and consumer demand in this new paradigm,” Jominy wrote.
EV Discounts
US automakers are still adjusting after several policy changes, including the expiration of the EV tax credit and the impact of tariffs on the overall market.
Along with these, Thomas King further noted that “evolving fuel economy requirements, along with the transition to the new model year” also contribute to “some distortions in typical seasonal discount patterns.”
J.D. Power expects discounts on EVs to average $11,689 in November, up $260 from November 2024 but down $928 from October 2025.
These figures highly contrast with estimates for non-EVs, which are projected at $2,960, an increase of $161 from a year ago.
Several automakers have introduced new discounts and benefits to try to lower the impact of the consumer credit expiry.
These include offering the $7,500 discount — the same value as the credit — on the final pricing of the vehicle, as EV maker Lucid Motors has done.
General Motors and Ford also announced that they would “keep” offering the value to consumers buying electric vehicles, but then stepped back and began offering other discounts, such as Ford‘s 0% financing rate for contracts of up to 72 months.
Leasing
The scenario is also changing for leasing contracts, which EV makers like Rivian have depended on, since the price cap for the tax credit was higher for leases than for purchases.
To qualify for the tax credit when purchasing an electric vehicle, the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) could not exceed $88,000 for vans, SUVs, and pickup trucks, and $55,000 for other vehicles, such as sedans.
In November, leasing has declined 12% from a year ago, trending at 54%.
“Leasing remains a critical lever for EV adoption,” Tyson Jominy said, adding that it far outpaces leasing on ICE vehicles — at 20% — and hybrids — at 15%.
“While EV incentive spending has moderated compared to a year ago, the reliance on leasing and discounts underscores the challenges automakers face.”
Other Powertrains
J.D. Power expects a 5.2% decrease in overall vehicle sales this month in the US, with the total figures reaching below 1.26 million units.
Besides BEVs, plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are also expected to decline slightly, dropping 1.4 percentage points to 1.1% of US vehicle sales.
Regular hybrids (HEV), however, are projected to rise by 3.6 percentage points, reaching a 14.5% market share.
Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are likely to grow as well, making up 77.5% of sales — an increase of 2.3 percentage points.
