Jefferies upgraded Ford‘s stock rating from Underperform to a Hold rating on Monday, noting the Detroit automaker’s shift in EV strategy for the upcoming months.
The investment bank also raised its price target on Ford by 33.3% to $12.
Ford‘s shares have closed at $12.67 on Friday and have surged nearly 30% year to date.
Analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in a new research note — obtained by PriceTarget — that Ford‘s management had already mentioned a “multi-billion opportunity” for the company given “looser” GHG (greenhouse gas) and CO2 regulations.
This allows the company to concentrate on selling more profitable petrol and diesel models — especially pick-up trucks and SUVs, which make up a large portion of its US sales.
Jefferies expects Ford “will refrain from providing 2026 guidance until next year,” after the company suspended its 2025 guidance in May, citing the uncertainty of the US tariffs’ impact.
By then, Ford said it expected to take a $1.5 billion hit caused by Trump’s tariffs.
However, the analyst said that the automaker “could comment on potential mix benefits starting in Q4 and a shift in EV strategy.”
Last week, the company announced that it delivered a record 85,789 electric vehicles in the third quarter, as demand jumped ahead of the EV consumer credit deadline on September 30.
“We already assumed lower losses from model e,” Houchois noted, as Ford both shifts EV exposure to Europe, “where unit losses are lower,” and as the company normalizes “spending on the Universal Platform scheduled for 2027.”
In August, the analyst had already said that the automaker should be able to materially reduce losses at its Model e electric vehicle unit from 2026, pointing to Q2 results that showed all incremental revenue over Q1 coming from Europe, while divisional losses held steady.
Ford announced in August that it will invest “approximately $5 billion” to develop a new EV platform and launch a midsize four-door electric pickup in 2027 with a target starting price of $30,000.
According to Jefferies, Ford‘s strong compliance with US fuel economy and emissions rules, combined with earned regulatory credits, has kept its compliance costs low.
In a earlier note, Houchois raised the firm’s 2025 adjusted EBIT estimate for Ford by 2% to $6.9 billion, with its Credit division offsetting weaker Pro segment results.
They also lifted its free cash flow forecast by 12% to $2.7 billion on a higher internal Credit dividend — though still below company guidance.
On Monday, Houchois wrote that 43% of Ford‘s US volume is in full size pick-ups and SUVs, while estimating that 60 to 80% of North American sales and profits are coming from Ford‘s Pro and Blue divisions.
“Loosening current constraints” on a mix of higher CO2 mix models, like the Raptor and ST-Line, “should enable Ford to offset tariffs and improve earnings next year.”
Jefferies expects Ford “to remain committed to an electrification strategy,” saying that it should benefit from a longer adjustment period.”
Given Friday’s closing price of Ford shares, the new price target implies a downside of 5.3%.
Houchois also raised the firm’s price target on Detroit automaker General Motors, from $50 to $55, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.
Based on Friday’s close at $60.13, the price target implies a downside of 8.5% on the stock. Year to date, GM‘s stock grew by nearly 13%.
