Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois on Monday lifted his price target on Ford Motor Co. to $9 from $8 while reiterating an ‘Underperform’ rating, citing tariff exposure, ongoing EV losses, and a cautious valuation outlook.
According to a note to clients obtained by PriceTarget, Houchois said Ford’s full-year net tariff guidance of $2 billion is “not very different” from Stellantis at $1.7 billion and General Motors at $2–3 billion excluding Korea, after adjusting for size.
The analyst noted that higher exposure to aluminum — subject to a 50% tariff — “offsets higher US final assembly, but also contributes to F’s ~25% lower average emissions in addition to high hybrid exposure.”
As a strong Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) performer, Ford is less leveraged to any loosening of greenhouse gas regulations, Houchois said.
He added that the automaker should be able to materially reduce losses at its Model e electric vehicle unit from 2026, pointing to Q2 results that showed all incremental revenue over Q1 coming from Europe, while divisional losses held steady.
“Lower unit losses in Europe, fewer US sales, peak Gen2 (skunkwork) investment and more competitive models all point to lower unit losses,” he wrote.
Jefferies raised its 2025 adjusted EBIT estimate for Ford by 2% to $6.9 billion, with its Credit division offsetting weaker Pro segment results, and lifted its free cash flow forecast by 12% to $2.7 billion on a higher internal Credit dividend — though still below company guidance.
For 2026, the firm increased its adjusted EBIT estimate by 25% to reflect a still-modest 5% margin, with an improved product mix in its Blue division and a 20% reduction in Model e losses to about $3 billion.
However, Houchois cautioned that a valuation of 7 times 2026 earnings and warranty liabilities remain overhangs.
Ford is scheduled to reveal in Kentucky a new EV strategy later this Monday (August 11) with a focus on upcoming more affordable electric models.
Its current EV lineup includes the Mustang Mach-E, the F-150 Lightning and the E-Transit EV.
Ford saw its US sales rise 9.3% year on year in July to 189,313 units, with hybrid vehicles posting the biggest increase.
The company reported its second quarter earnings results late last month, the CEO Jim Farley said Ford “continues to improve the efficiency” of the EV unit ‘Ford Model e.’
