Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a research note Monday that U.S. tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and auto parts could hit electric vehicle makers unevenly, with Polestar and Rivian among the most exposed, while Tesla and Lucid Motors are expected to weather the impact better due to their U.S.-based operations.
The 25% tariff—announced as part of a broader crackdown on Chinese imports—could particularly affect Polestar, which currently imports the Polestar 2 model from China. The firm described the Geely-backed automaker as “significantly impacted,” adding that Polestar has already removed new Polestar 2 units from its U.S. website.
Still, Cantor noted that Polestar’s upcoming production facility in South Carolina could help offset some of the pressure. “This line is shared with Volvo and has a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year, of which Polestar’s unit mix will comprise ~50,000 vehicles,” the note said.
For Rivian, the impact stems more from its reliance on overseas suppliers. “We view Rivian as one of the most impacted by the auto parts tariffs since the company is not as vertically integrated and is sourcing several components from overseas,” Sheppard wrote. Rivian shares fell 4.3% in pre-market trading Monday.
In contrast, Tesla and Lucid are seen as less vulnerable due to their domestic manufacturing footprints and localized supply chains.
“Tesla has prioritized domestic sourcing and maintains a high degree of vertical integration,” Cantor said. “Thus, we see it as better positioned and less impacted relative to other OEMs.” Still, Tesla shares declined 5.4% on April 3 and slid another 10.4% on April 4.
Lucid Motors, which assembles all vehicles in the U.S., also benefits from its domestic footprint. “The company has a high degree of vertical integration and currently manufactures all its vehicles in the U.S., so we also see less impact from tariffs,” Cantor said.
Lucid’s Saudi Arabia facility, which is being upgraded to full production, is intended to serve the Middle East and global markets—not the U.S.—and therefore does not expose the company to the new tariffs. Shares of Lucid are trading 5% lower at $2.17 during Monday’s pre-market session.
Also, Wedbush Securities recently cautioned that the move could trigger sweeping price hikes of up to $15,000 per vehicle and cause “chaos” across the global auto supply chain.
Ferrari has already responded, stating it will increase prices on select models by up to 10% after April 1 to offset the impact. “Every automaker in the world will have to raise prices in some form selling into the U.S., and the supply chain logistics of this tariff announcement heard around the world is hard to even put our arms around at this moment,” Wedbush said.
GM currently builds 52% of its vehicles sold in the US at domestic facilities, while 30% come from Canada and Mexico and 18% from other regions. Ford’s US production stands at 77%, with 21% sourced from Canada and Mexico and 2% from elsewhere.
Wedbush called the proposed tariff “a back breaker and Armageddon for the auto industry globally” and warned it “throws the supply chain into pure panic mode.” The firm estimates the policy would add $100 billion in annual costs to the sector — a burden that would “essentially get passed directly onto the consumer and clearly erode demand on Day 1 of tariffs.”
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said in late March that the 25% tariff could eliminate General Motors’ global profit and reduce Ford Motor Co.’s by about 75%. He forecasted a “$14 billion cost to General Motors (amounting to essentially all of its global profits) and a $6 billion cost to Ford (amounting to ~75% of global profits).”
