Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said on Friday that despite the “slowing” of EV growth in the U.S., the firm expects the market share of fully electric vehicles to reach 25% by 2030.
In a new research note, the analyst highlighted a year of “divergence” and “a bifurcated global EV industry,” noting “distinct implications for OEMs, suppliers, energy players and investors.”
“While China’s EV market pushes ahead with scale and innovation, the West is slowing, facing demand headwinds, policy uncertainty, and rising costs,” the analyst said.
Regarding EV penetration in the United States, Roeska stated that, year to date, “9.9% of new car sales in the U.S. have been EVs,” up from 9.6% in the same period last year.
The analyst noted, however, that the rate of growth was slower from 2024 to 2025, when compared to the “2.9% of growth seen from 2023 to 2024.”
“However, despite a period of slower growth, we forecast EV sales growth to continue,” the analyst stated.
By 2030, the firm expects that 25% of new car sales will be battery electric vehicles (BEV), and 11% will be plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).
Nearly 300,000 new electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in the United States in the first quarter of 2025, up 11.4% from a year earlier, according to data from Kelley Blue Book.
EVs accounted for about 7.5% of total new-vehicle sales during the quarter, compared with 7% in the same period last year.
Last week, Donald Trump’s bill proposing to cut EV tax credits was approved by the U.S. House of Representatives, moving to the Senate.
On Thursday, U.S. EV maker Tesla urged the chamber for a “sensible wind down” on clean energy tax cuts, as they could “threaten America’s energy independence.”
Ford‘s EV unit reported a first-quarter EBIT loss of $849 million.
Citing uncertainty over the tariff scenario, the automaker suspended its financial forecast as it reported its quarterly results, stating that it expected a $1.5 billion hit from Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts.
