Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
The momentum in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market will continue next year supported by trade-in schemes, car purchase incentives and government stimulus, according to S&P Global forecasts. The firm expects car sales in 2025 to reach 89.6 million units globally, increasing 1.7% year over year.
Mentioning the full NEV tax exemption extended through the end of 2025, S&P Global sees NEV penetration as a percentage of passenger vehicles rising from 49% in 2024 to 58% in 2025.
“For the year ending, the combination of the 130 billion yuan ($17.8 billion) extension of New Energy Vehicle (NEV) incentives, together with the new 75 billion yuan ($10.3 billion) trade-in scheme, 2024 is estimated to recover to at least 25.8 million units (+1.4% y/y),” S&P Global Mobility noted in its latest report.
Additionally, the firm mentioned cheaper battery costs and “generous national and regional subsidy programs.”
S&P Global says the automotive sector “will continue to be supported by the NEV and trade-in schemes, along with local government auto incentives, wider government stimulus, and the continuation of the vehicle price wars,” S&P Global said in the research note. “2025 demand for Mainland China is forecasted at 26.6 million units, up a further 3.0% over 2024 levels.”
China’s giant BYD delivered in November, for the second consecutive month, over half a million NEVs. The company has not yet disclosed its sales target for next year.
Nio and the Stellantis-backed Leapmotor have already disclosed that they both aim to double their annual sales in 2025. Although XPeng has not officially communicated any production or sales target, China’s media outlet 36kr said recently that the brand also aims to double the output — citing people familiar with the matter.
Beijing-based NEV maker Li Auto is expected to reach its annual target of half a million vehicles, with a majority being plug-in hybrids. The target had been lowered multiple times during the year.
Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
